Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by August 15, 2026?
Turns on whether maritime territory and airspace count as 'Saudi Arabia' for the purposes of military action targeting.
Most prediction-market losses aren't bad forecasts — they're bad rules reading. These are the liquid Polymarket markets whose outcome may hinge on wording, definitions or sourcing technicalities rather than the event itself. Each crux below is extracted from the market's verbatim resolution rules and refreshed continuously. Independent — we hold no positions. Full dossiers, resolution precedents and a graded track record are rolling out.
Turns on whether maritime territory and airspace count as 'Saudi Arabia' for the purposes of military action targeting.
Turns on whether incident is attributed to 'NATO' (vs a single NATO member acting unilaterally) and whether target is confirmed Russian.
Turns on whether a 12.5 bps rate decrease counts as a 25 bps decrease when rounded up to the nearest 25 bps per the stated rule.
Turns on how fractional basis point changes round when not expressed in standard 25 bps increments.
Turns on whether a 37.5 bps rate increase counts as a 50+ bps increase when rounded up to the nearest 25 bps per the stated rule.
Turns on whether a qualified or tentative statement from an official (e.g., 'we believe aliens likely exist') counts as 'definitively states that...exists.'
Turns on how fractional basis point changes round when not expressed in standard 25 bps increments.
Turns on whether announcement of resignation alone counts as 'ceases to be President' or if actual cessation is required.
Turns on whether a limited military strike targeting specific assets (not aimed at territorial conquest) counts as 'an offensive intended to establish control.'
Turns on whether the market must resolve if independent House members never formally declare party affiliation before Congress convenes.
Turns on whether IMF Portwatch's 7-day moving average methodology and ship classifications remain unchanged through August 31.
Turns on whether political criticism (e.g., 'bad decision,' 'disaster candidate') qualifies as 'mocks, degrades, or disparages' vs. mere harsh opinion.
Turns on whether 'most seats' means most NEW seats gained (compared to pre-election baseline) versus most total seats won in the Duma.
Turns on whether small changes (e.g., 0.1 or 12.4 bps) round to 0 or 25 bps under 'rounded up to the nearest 25'.
Turns on whether 'most seats' means most NEW seats gained (compared to pre-election baseline) versus most total seats won in the Duma.
Turns on whether 'most seats' means most NEW seats gained (compared to pre-election baseline) versus most total seats won in the Duma.
Turns on whether 'military offensive intended to establish control' requires stated intent or any armed offensive counts.
Turns on whether an announced resignation that is subsequently withdrawn or reversed still counts as permanent removal for YES resolution.
Turns on whether 'overwhelming consensus of credible reporting' qualifies to resolve the market absent an official announcement.
Turns on whether a 26–49 basis point Fed cut counts as 1 cut or 2 cuts (same ambiguity as 616910).
Turns on whether separate unsigned official declarations by each country adopting the same published deal text count as 'formal adoption' of the instrument.
Turns on the complete list of individuals and entities marked 'listed in this market,' which is not fully displayed in the provided rules text.
Turns on whether 'or similar' means only minor phrasings of 'Lake America'/'Lake of America' or includes distinct alternatives like 'Lake of the Americas'.
Turns on what level of formality and certainty 'definitively states' that extraterrestrial life exists requires of a US official—casual comment vs. formal announcement.
Turns on how much contested or disputed control qualifies as Iran 'no longer exercising primary control' versus the market resolving 'No' because control is 'not sufficiently established.'
Turns on whether a 26–49 basis point Fed cut counts as 1 cut or 2 cuts (rules specify 1–24 bps = 1 cut and 50 bps = 2 cuts, but gap between 25 and 50 is undefined).
Turns on whether separately signed documents addressing the same underlying agreement count as 'mutually signed' or if identical agreement text is required.
Turns on whether winning the nomination without formally accepting it counts as winning, or if acceptance is a separate required event.
Turns on when 'results of the special primary are not definitively known' — depends on timing of legal challenges and official certification.
Turns on whether 'announcement made by the United States and Denmark' requires a joint announcement from both nations or if a US-only announcement qualifies.
Turns on whether military operations that lack explicit intent statements but could plausibly be interpreted as aiming to establish control meet the 'intended to establish control' requirement.
Turns on whether lack of official party consensus or contested races count as an 'official Republican nominee' under the rules.
Turns on whether winning the nomination without formally accepting it counts as winning, or if acceptance is a separate required event.
Turns on whether 'prevented from acting as the de facto leader' requires total incapacity or includes significant partial loss of authority.
Turns on whether a domestic power shift removing specific leadership while preserving core institutions counts as the regime 'falling' under the rules.
Turns on whether unplayed games in a clinched series count toward the total, as the 'clinching game' rule is incomplete (text truncated mid-sentence).
Turns on whether X counts as the 'next formal senior-level round' vs. a follow-on technical/working-group meeting or ad-hoc diplomatic contact.
Turns on which baseline (prior State Duma composition, prior year, or earlier election) serves as the reference point for measuring LDPR's seat gains.
Turns on whether temporary prevention from performing duties (e.g., hospitalization, brief detention, illness) counts as being 'removed from power' versus only permanent removal.
Turns on what 'Other' means when the rules' tiebreakers (VP for Senate, Speaker for House) appear to guarantee determinate party control.
Turns on whether forfeits in non-clinching games that don't prevent the series from concluding normally count toward the game total.
Turns on whether any reported evidence meets the undefined threshold of 'conclusive proof' and which sources count as 'credible reporting' on a pseudoscientific claim.
Turns on whether loss of de facto leadership requires formal removal/detention or can occur via sidelining/factional curtailment without official announcement.
Turns on what resolution source or timeout behavior applies if gol.gg does not publish results within 2 hours (rules incomplete: sentence cuts off mid-clause).
Turns on whether 'first announcement of the results from the Florida Democratic party' means preliminary/unverified results or official certified results if they diverge.
Turns on whether minion kills count as 'total kills' under the rules.
Turns on whether a brief or localized violation of the ceasefire during the 10-day period disqualifies the entire agreement, or whether 'general suspension' permits minor incidents without breaking the 'continuously in effect' requirement.
Turns on whether small changes (e.g., 0.1 or 12.4 bps) round to 0 or 25 bps under 'rounded up to the nearest 25'.
Turns on whether 15M exactly counts as within the '10-15M' bracket per the tie-breaker rule.
Turns on how 'primary governing control' is assessed among multiple rival claimants when power is contested.
Turns on whether 'completed match' is defined consistently when series end via forfeiture of non-clinching vs. clinching games in partial series.
Turns on whether truncated/incomplete rules adequately define party affiliation for independent/unaffiliated candidates.
Turns on whether rate changes of 13–24.99 bps round up to 25 or down to 0 under 'rounded up to the nearest 25'.
Turns on how many credible sources constitute 'widespread consensus' for an unannounced acquisition.
Turns on whether X counts as 'incontrovertible proof' of Epstein being alive—the bar for proof rigor is undefined.
Turns on whether variant names (e.g., 'Lake of the Americas', 'America Lake') count as 'similar' to the specified examples.
Turns on whether contested de facto control claims are resolved by strict adherence to specified indicators or require consensus judgment from credible reporting sources.
Turns on whether contested de facto control claims are resolved by strict adherence to specified indicators or require consensus judgment from credible reporting sources.
Turns on whether functional incapacity, detention, or effective removal from duties—while remaining nominally President—counts as 'ceasing to be President.'
Turns on how broadly 'direct military engagement' is defined—whether it includes airstrikes, artillery, and drone strikes or is limited to ground combat.
Turns on whether translation-induced differences in substantive terms count as 'minor wording or translation differences' under the same-underlying-instrument standard.
Turns on whether an opponent forfeiture of the clinching game counts as the match being 'completed' toward the game total.
Turns on whether rate changes of 26–49.99 bps round up to 50 or down to 25 under 'rounded up to the nearest 25'.
Turns on whether warning shots, unpopulated-area artillery fire, or minor-damage ramming count as military encounter under the rules.
Turns on whether a signed but unratified agreement or preliminary signed text counts as a 'binding agreement or legal instrument' versus requiring formal ratification.
Turns on whether forfeited games count toward the total if the series is abandoned due to the forfeit before the final possible game.
Turns on whether a later meeting counts as a 'new formally convened senior-level' round of talks or as follow-on technical talks to the June 22 round.
Turns on whether IPO valuation is determined by opening price, first-day close, or implied market cap, given the rules cut off mid-sentence mid-resolution criteria.
Turns on whether new diplomatic talks count as a qualifying 'formally convened senior-level round' or fall under excluded 'follow-on technical talks' under the rules.
Turns on whether contested de facto control claims are resolved by strict adherence to specified indicators or require consensus judgment from credible reporting sources.
Turns on whether contested de facto control claims are resolved by strict adherence to specified indicators or require consensus judgment from credible reporting sources.
Turns on what counts as a 'qualifying military action' when borderline cases (e.g., classification of drones vs. loitering munitions) arise.
Turns on whether statements that allude to or reference blockade suspension (without explicitly naming it) count as clear official announcements under the rules.
Turns on whether seats won by Rodina in a coalition count toward Rodina's total for ranking purposes under the incomplete coalition-handling rules.
Turns on whether contested or partial domestic control qualifies as 'de facto' exercise of head-of-state powers under the rules.
Turns on how 'for the majority of users within the United States' is measured (by user count, geographic regions, or other methodology).
Turns on whether a brief, minimal exchange (wave, nod, single sentence) qualifies as 'interact' for meeting resolution.
Turns on whether X (health crisis, house arrest, effective sidelining) counts as being 'permanently prevented from fulfilling duties' vs. retaining title.
Turns on how seats are counted if KPRF contests the election as part of a jointly-listed coalition, since the coalition resolution rules are cut off mid-sentence.
Turns on whether a series ending via forfeit before the clinching point is considered 'completed' for counting total games.
Turns on whether YouTube Shorts or preview videos count as the 'next video' for which day-1 views must be counted.
Turns on whether an attack lacking explicit intent to establish political control still qualifies as a 'military offensive intended to establish control'.
Turns on whether limited military strikes qualify as a 'military offensive intended to establish control over any portion' of Taiwan.
Turns on whether militarily effective occupation that is politically contested or disputed qualifies as having 'established control' on the island.
Turns on what threshold of mutual agreement and consensus reporting counts as a binding ceasefire, and whether 'general pause' can exclude specific conflict categories.
Turns on how seats are counted if Yabloko contests the election as part of a jointly-listed coalition, since the coalition resolution rules are cut off mid-sentence.
Turns on whether jointly-contested coalition seats count toward the listed party's seat total.
Turns on how seats are counted when New People contests as part of a coalition that includes unlisted parties, since the coalition-handling rule is incomplete/truncated.
Turns on whether jointly receiving the Nobel Prize counts as 'winning' if another joint recipient ranks higher in the tiebreaker hierarchy.
Turns on how seats are counted if New People contests the election as part of a jointly-listed coalition, since the coalition resolution rules are cut off mid-sentence.
Turns on whether official announcement from Florida Democratic Party takes precedence if it conflicts with overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Turns on whether an Israeli government announcement of withdrawal is binding if credible reporting consensus contradicts it.
Turns on whether strikes on Iranian naval assets or facilities in disputed/contested waters just offshore count as hitting 'terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters.'
Turns on whether the incomplete resolution source rules specify fallback procedures if gol.gg is unavailable.
Turns on whether Rodina's seat total includes all allied parties' seats when Rodina forms a coalition with other listed parties.
Turns on whether data anomalies count as 'obvious data integrity issues' under the incomplete rules definition.
Turns on whether Grüne loses the market if it ties for most seats, since tiebreaker resolves against the party whose abbreviation doesn't come first alphabetically.
Turns on how seats are counted if LDPR contests the election as part of a jointly-listed coalition, since the coalition resolution rules are cut off mid-sentence.
Turns on whether 'or similar' means only minor phrasings of 'Lake America'/'Lake of America' or includes distinct alternatives like 'Lake of the Americas'.
Turns on whether official certification alone satisfies 'confirmation' of results by July 31, 2027, or if all three news sources must specifically call the race.