Iran leadership change by December 31?
market:
Yes 17¢ / No 83¢
· liquidity $208,887 · ends 2026-12-31
·
market page ↗Turns on whether 'prevented from acting as the de facto leader' requires total incapacity or includes significant partial loss of authority.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rule specifies four conditions but 'prevented from acting' is broader than others; what counts as sufficient loss of function? Exacerbated by sole source being 'credible reporting consensus' in authoritarian context with information control.
Rules arguments from the market's own traders
Substantive resolution-rules commentary from the market's comment section, joined to each
commenter's on-chain position (skin in the game) at collection time. Position ≠ correctness — read the
arguments, weigh the incentives.
SqMoneyHunter no position 2026-05-17
He's defiantly dead. This is IRGC coup which they using his name to run the country. Polymarket shouldn't resolve any date until further information and clarity. He's not leading the country not in May nor March
abdoohl no position 2026-04-30
Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei:
Islamic Iran, with practical gratitude for the blessing of managing the Strait of Hormuz, will secure the Persian Gulf region and remove the enemy's hostile abuses from this waterway.
The legal rules and the new management of the Strait of Hormuz will bring comfort and progress for the benefit of all the nations of the region, and its economic blessings will bring joy to the hearts of the people, God willing, even if the disbelievers dislike it.
abdoohl no position 2026-04-30
Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei:
The peoples of the Persian Gulf region, who for many years had become accustomed to the silence and submission of their rulers in the face of bullies and aggressors, have witnessed in the past sixty days the beautiful manifestations of firmness, vigilance, and the heroic struggle of the naval forces of the Army and the IRGC.
They saw the zeal and bravery of the people and youth of the southern region of dear Iran in rejecting foreign domination.
AyatollahDollar no position 2026-04-25
Yes, UMA will vote NO, clearly. Just like it resolved on March 31.
latenightdegen no position 2026-04-24
I imagine time will expire on the market, 3 days will expire, automatic resolution proposal comes in, then the dispute, and it will end up in a UMA vote
AyatollahDollar no position 2026-04-24
Random "reports" or speculations from various no-names aren't relevant and won't resolve this market
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $75,749 · SELL No $40,401 · BUY Yes $8,013 · SELL Yes $3,010. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
SELL No
$21,241 @ 78¢
2026-08-08 · 0xe258c02a… · wallet history: $3,010 redeemed / 4 resolutions BUY No
$14,868 @ 82¢
2026-08-14 · 0xb10047d6… · wallet history: $28,214 redeemed / 10 resolutions SELL No
$10,153 @ 73¢
2026-08-08 · 0xe258c02a… · wallet history: $3,010 redeemed / 4 resolutions BUY No
$7,961 @ 85¢
2026-08-20 · 0xac92f07c… · wallet history: $150,679 redeemed / 24 resolutions BUY No
$5,081 @ 83¢
2026-08-16 · 0x8afa03dd… · wallet history: $46,706 redeemed / 20 resolutions BUY No
$3,900 @ 78¢
2026-08-09 · 0x69788e13… · wallet history: $741 redeemed / 9 resolutions BUY No
$2,983 @ 82¢
2026-08-13 · 0x69788e13… · wallet history: $741 redeemed / 9 resolutions BUY No
$2,564 @ 79¢
2026-08-09 · 0x9dfe2f73… · wallet history: $21,212 redeemed / 9 resolutions Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Iran leadership change by March 13?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/iran-leadership-change-by-december-31-974-976-658-482-568-685-996-469-827.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.