Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
market:
Yes 1¢ / No 99¢
· liquidity $950,970 · ends 2026-09-16
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market page ↗
Turns on whether a 12.5 bps rate decrease counts as a 25 bps decrease when rounded up to the nearest 25 bps per the stated rule.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rounding rule means non-multiple-of-25 changes resolve to next-higher bracket, creating potential misalignment with actual event.
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $1,144,539 · SELL No $22,793 · BUY Yes $13,081 · SELL Yes $1,491. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY No
$791,371 @ 99¢
2026-08-20 · 0x3a8aa345… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions
BUY No
$197,271 @ 99¢
2026-08-19 · 0x3a8aa345… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions
BUY No
$79,198 @ 99¢
2026-08-20 · 0xc3ca1a42… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions
BUY No
$51,290 @ 99¢
2026-08-19 · 0xc0cdf9dd… · wallet history: $326,353 redeemed / 40 resolutions
BUY No
$4,940 @ 99¢
2026-08-20 · 0xf7ca6c9b… · wallet history: $92,000 redeemed / 37 resolutions
BUY No
$4,935 @ 99¢
2026-08-19 · 0xf7ca6c9b… · wallet history: $92,000 redeemed / 37 resolutions
BUY Yes
$4,906 @ 1¢
2026-08-20 · 0x50ef0c1a… · wallet history: $840 redeemed / 3 resolutions
BUY No
$1,984 @ 99¢
2026-08-18 · 0x5a218c7a… · wallet history: $2,462 redeemed / 16 resolutions
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-586.json.
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