Trump out as President before 2027?
market:
Yes 6¢ / No 94¢
· liquidity $407,089 · ends 2026-12-31
·
market page ↗Turns on whether an announced resignation that is subsequently withdrawn or reversed still counts as permanent removal for YES resolution.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules state announcement immediately resolves to YES 'regardless of when' it takes effect, but also require 'only permanent removal' qualifies—conflict if resignation is announced then canceled.
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: SELL No $177,853 · BUY No $91,894 · BUY Yes $9,282 · SELL Yes $2,756. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
SELL No
$56,397 @ 94¢
2026-08-20 · 0xb8e32d57… · wallet history: $385,193 redeemed / 16 resolutions BUY No
$28,500 @ 95¢
2026-08-19 · 0x67b8a4ae… · wallet history: $258,974 redeemed / 22 resolutions SELL No
$28,200 @ 94¢
2026-08-16 · 0xa18c5cf2… · wallet history: $41,479 redeemed / 17 resolutions SELL No
$28,200 @ 94¢
2026-08-16 · 0xa18c5cf2… · wallet history: $41,479 redeemed / 17 resolutions SELL No
$23,417 @ 94¢
2026-08-20 · 0xb8e32d57… · wallet history: $385,193 redeemed / 16 resolutions BUY No
$14,000 @ 94¢
2026-08-13 · 0x2d537144… · wallet history: $129,493 redeemed / 42 resolutions SELL No
$9,300 @ 93¢
2026-07-31 · 0xb4f2592e… · wallet history: $151,596 redeemed / 49 resolutions BUY No
$7,238 @ 94¢
2026-08-14 · 0x709a4b49… · wallet history: $16,610 redeemed / 4 resolutions Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Iran leadership change by March 13?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/trump-out-as-president-before-2027.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.