Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?
market:
Yes 2¢ / No 98¢
· liquidity $113,250 · ends 2026-12-09
·
market page ↗
Turns on whether rate changes of 26–49.99 bps round up to 50 or down to 25 under 'rounded up to the nearest 25'.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Same rounding ambiguity as 3215006; affects 50+ bps question
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $4,673. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY No
$987 @ 99¢
2026-08-06 · 0xe3479950… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions
BUY No
$496 @ 99¢
2026-08-18 · 0x03805a13… · wallet history: $453 redeemed / 9 resolutions
BUY No
$494 @ 99¢
2026-08-07 · 0x03805a13… · wallet history: $453 redeemed / 9 resolutions
BUY No
$489 @ 98¢
2026-08-13 · 0x03805a13… · wallet history: $453 redeemed / 9 resolutions
BUY No
$464 @ 99¢
2026-08-07 · 0x511f9c77… · wallet history: $27 redeemed / 2 resolutions
BUY No
$437 @ 99¢
2026-08-21 · 0xe40aaa5c… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions
BUY No
$436 @ 99¢
2026-08-18 · 0xe40aaa5c… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions
BUY No
$435 @ 99¢
2026-08-15 · 0xe40aaa5c… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions
Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Will the US strike 4 countries in 2026?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-december-2026-meeting-20260729232808633.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.