Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
market:
Yes 4¢ / No 96¢
· liquidity $468,839 · ends 2026-12-31
·
market page ↗Turns on whether 'military offensive intended to establish control' requires stated intent or any armed offensive counts.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
'Intended to' creates ambiguity: does China's stated intent matter, or only the fact of military action?
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: SELL No $202,551 · BUY No $42,444. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
SELL No
$48,825 @ 96¢
2026-08-08 · 0xbadffd84… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions SELL No
$32,419 @ 96¢
2026-08-13 · 0x097d5631… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions SELL No
$30,720 @ 96¢
2026-08-19 · 0x40047c2a… · wallet history: $160,889 redeemed / 42 resolutions SELL No
$15,217 @ 96¢
2026-08-13 · 0xa18c5cf2… · wallet history: $41,479 redeemed / 17 resolutions SELL No
$11,049 @ 96¢
2026-08-08 · 0xbadffd84… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions SELL No
$9,605 @ 96¢
2026-08-19 · 0x40047c2a… · wallet history: $160,889 redeemed / 42 resolutions SELL No
$9,446 @ 96¢
2026-08-15 · 0x097d5631… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions SELL No
$7,976 @ 96¢
2026-08-19 · 0x40047c2a… · wallet history: $160,889 redeemed / 42 resolutions Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Will the US strike 4 countries in 2026?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.