Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
market:
Yes 0¢ / No 100¢
· liquidity $448,631 · ends 2026-09-30
·
market page ↗Turns on whether 'most seats' means most NEW seats gained (compared to pre-election baseline) versus most total seats won in the Duma.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Rules specify 'greatest number of seats…compared to before the election,' clearly meaning seat changes not totals, which differs from typical election resolution rules.
Rules arguments from the market's own traders
Substantive resolution-rules commentary from the market's comment section, joined to each
commenter's on-chain position (skin in the game) at collection time. Position ≠ correctness — read the
arguments, weigh the incentives.
alexludoman holds $1 on Yes 2026-06-25
read the rules, only one winner ant it aint rodina
beerbite holds $1 on Yes 2026-07-29
Where is party YABLOKO? The Yabloko party has been cleared to participate in the State Duma elections this September.
serg.overseas no position 2026-08-06
For Polymarket, the absence of the outcome that actually occurred in reality is recognized as a Market Design Flaw.
If Yabloko wins the most seats, the oracle will not be able to award victory to any of the options (United Russia, New People, CPRF, etc.), as doing so would be a factual lie.
Since there is physically no 'Other' option on the dashboard, the UMA oracle will declare the outcome 'Unresolvable'. In this case, the smart contract returns all invested funds back to the users' balances.
BoberKurwaYaPerdole no position 2026-08-06
Someone just misinterpreted the rules and thinks it's easy money here. As soon as the whale oduplitsya, the price will drop.
XOVZ no position 2026-08-05
How it will resolve if Yabloko gain the most of the seats? Will it resolve to Edinaya Russia if it will be the second one of the gains?
0x4931906E942eC6c6b406A128640fE931bFC8fc4c-1767994901256 no position 2026-07-28
Does “gains the greatest number of seats compared to before the election” mean net seat gain versus the current State Duma, or simply the largest total number of seats after the election?
IvanDDD no position 2026-07-21
Посмотрите насколько отличаются цифры текущей численности фракций на сайтах
dumatv ru/fractions
duma gov ru/duma/factions/
(310-325 ЕР, например)
Почему бы не взять какие-то одни исходные цифры и не зафиксировать в условиях? Это соответствует смыслу этого рынка. В противном случае создаются условия для манипуляции.
vade4ka no position 2026-07-17
Site that mentioned in context is showing 325 seats at the moment. I know that its about nominal seats, perhaps I didn’t express my point very clearly. What I meant is that it would be quite difficult for United Russia to gain even more seats, since they already have a very comfortable majority. For parties with limited representation in duma, however, increasing their number of seats is easier, especially for the NL who are starting from a very small base and whose popularity continues to grow
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $52,539 · SELL No $6,317. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY No
$5,556 @ 100¢
2026-08-20 · 0x511f9c77… · wallet history: $27 redeemed / 2 resolutions BUY No
$3,673 @ 100¢
2026-08-17 · 0x511f9c77… · wallet history: $27 redeemed / 2 resolutions BUY No
$3,673 @ 100¢
2026-08-17 · 0x511f9c77… · wallet history: $27 redeemed / 2 resolutions BUY No
$2,904 @ 100¢
2026-08-20 · 0x511f9c77… · wallet history: $27 redeemed / 2 resolutions BUY No
$2,778 @ 100¢
2026-08-09 · 0x3c7fc502… · wallet history: $2,511 redeemed / 51 resolutions SELL No
$2,602 @ 100¢
2026-08-09 · 0x3c7fc502… · wallet history: $2,511 redeemed / 51 resolutions BUY No
$1,783 @ 100¢
2026-08-21 · 0x511f9c77… · wallet history: $27 redeemed / 2 resolutions BUY No
$1,426 @ 100¢
2026-08-20 · 0x03805a13… · wallet history: $453 redeemed / 9 resolutions Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-a-just-russia-for-truth-srzp-gain-the-most-seats-in-the-next-russian-parliamentary-election.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.