US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

And the rules say "physical custody OR control" and "US territory or elsewhere" - so in a typical resolution dispute drama it could be argued, even if far fetched, that China holding it qualifies as legal control outside US territory

So if Iran ships the Uranium to China, and China agrees with the US it won't give it back to Iran unless the US violates the deal - does that count as the Uranium being "under US control" in the rules? Indirectly in a legal way it kinda is, just not physical. That likely outcome should be clarified by Polymarket or there should be some consensus how it would resolve

Considering the current Iranian proposal is to give some of the Uranium to a third country, likely Russia/China/Pakistan, so that it can be returned to them if further negotiations fail, how does everyone understand the third country rule here on Polymarket? "“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere." this section. My interpretation that the current proposed third country transfer would not resolve this market to YES, since it is unlikely to give the US physical possession - at most they would likely have inspectors or the word of the country actually receiving the Uranium. "Physical custody or control" to me implies for instance the ability to not give it back to Iran if requested, exactly what Iran is not wanting to agree to. The whole rule is kinda nonsense though, as I can not imagine any scenario where it is stored in a country like Russia but at the same time under US physical custody or control - the only such place in Russia I suppose would be the US embassy, it's not like they'd let the US fly the uranium themselves to Russia, or let the US rent a compound with US soldiers and the Uranium in that compound, which would imply the "physical custody or control" the rules mention... If Russia just secures it and says "you got my word US we won't send it back to Iran" that obviously does not qualify as US control.

If they mix some into trump's coffee how will this resolve?

they can give 1gram to Trump so he can say he "won", and then it will be resolved as yes

So basically Trump writes on Truth social "we have the uranium" and this market will resolve to YES ? what a stupid market rules..

I'll comment before I bet... they'll get it, of course, it's always been their business... but keep the title secret! They'll never announce its publication during that period. You know very well that in politics, to avoid alarming the population or creating public anger, these things are learned much later. Trump is still president; we'll get the files when he's no longer aware of them or when the statute of limitations has expired...

[link removed] Probably resolving as "YES"