unrekt resolver / dossier

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

market: Yes 4¢ / No 96¢ · liquidity $93,907 · ends 2026-10-10 · market page ↗
Turns on whether jointly receiving the Nobel Prize counts as 'winning' if another joint recipient ranks higher in the tiebreaker hierarchy.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering

Resolution rules (verbatim)

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

Market resolves to single winner after applying Trump > Zelenskyy > Netanyahu > Putin > Musk precedence; if Zelenskyy shares award with Trump, market resolves to Trump, so question 'Will Zelenskyy win' = No despite prize receipt.

Big money on this market

Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $36,444 · SELL No $26,786 · SELL Yes $2,268 · BUY Yes $1,460. Displayed as evidence of informed interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.

BUY No $5,706 @ 92¢ 2026-07-05 · 0x162f6fff… · wallet history: $34,537 redeemed / 8 resolutions
BUY No $4,193 @ 94¢ 2026-07-16 · 0x000c8cb9… · wallet history: $238,113 redeemed / 86 resolutions
SELL No $4,173 @ 88¢ 2026-05-27 · 0xcda2ea81… · wallet history: $53,814 redeemed / 6 resolutions
SELL No $3,688 @ 92¢ 2026-07-16 · 0x7b0b3850… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 7 resolutions
SELL No $3,073 @ 92¢ 2026-05-27 · 0xfcb47a60… · wallet history: $49,210 redeemed / 4 resolutions
BUY No $2,712 @ 94¢ 2026-08-11 · 0xc550e5ee… · wallet history: $21,141 redeemed / 8 resolutions
SELL No $2,699 @ 94¢ 2026-08-11 · 0x162f6fff… · wallet history: $34,537 redeemed / 8 resolutions
SELL No $1,801 @ 93¢ 2026-05-27 · 0x392c551b… · wallet history: $39,363 redeemed / 2 resolutions

Machine-readable

This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-volodymyr-zelensky-win-the-nobel-peace-prize-in-2026-637.json. Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.

unrekt resolver — independent resolution intelligence for prediction markets. We analyse how markets will resolve (rules, wording, precedent), not what will happen. We hold no positions. Every published read is timestamped and graded by the market's actual resolution. all wording-risk markets