Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
market:
Yes 7¢ / No 93¢
· liquidity $771,707 · ends 2026-12-31
·
market page ↗Turns on whether announcement of resignation alone counts as 'ceases to be President' or if actual cessation is required.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rule says announcement resolves Yes 'regardless of when goes into effect'; conflicts with 'ceases to be' language.
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: SELL No $346,956 · BUY No $135,199 · SELL Yes $11,153 · BUY Yes $3,702. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
SELL No
$156,400 @ 92¢
2026-08-17 · 0x05e26c77… · wallet history: $902 redeemed / 4 resolutions SELL No
$76,781 @ 92¢
2026-08-17 · 0x05e26c77… · wallet history: $902 redeemed / 4 resolutions BUY No
$27,900 @ 93¢
2026-08-14 · 0x9c261746… · wallet history: $333,994 redeemed / 5 resolutions SELL No
$23,000 @ 92¢
2026-08-19 · 0x248c1543… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions SELL No
$21,218 @ 92¢
2026-08-20 · 0xa18c5cf2… · wallet history: $41,479 redeemed / 17 resolutions BUY No
$15,795 @ 93¢
2026-08-14 · 0x9c261746… · wallet history: $333,994 redeemed / 5 resolutions SELL No
$14,574 @ 92¢
2026-08-20 · 0xf3f9dd7b… · wallet history: $7,404 redeemed / 9 resolutions BUY No
$9,300 @ 93¢
2026-08-17 · 0xb8b44e3c… · wallet history: $104,943 redeemed / 14 resolutions Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Iran leadership change by March 13?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/putin-out-before-2027-346.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.