Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
market:
Yes 1¢ / No 99¢
· liquidity $314,474 · ends 2026-09-30
·
market page ↗Turns on what level of formality and certainty 'definitively states' that extraterrestrial life exists requires of a US official—casual comment vs. formal announcement.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The term 'definitively states' is subjective; unclear if a tweet, off-hand comment, or speculative remark by a Cabinet member qualifies
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $53,918 · SELL No $27,101 · BUY Yes $1,472. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY No
$6,271 @ 98¢
2026-08-15 · 0xc97b0b2a… · wallet history: $36,275 redeemed / 6 resolutions BUY No
$5,252 @ 98¢
2026-08-05 · 0xdf5fedac… · wallet history: $1,608 redeemed / 11 resolutions BUY No
$4,878 @ 98¢
2026-08-15 · 0xa74581eb… · wallet history: $480,609 redeemed / 151 resolutions BUY No
$4,040 @ 98¢
2026-08-06 · 0x93015c5a… · wallet history: $113,404 redeemed / 29 resolutions BUY No
$2,800 @ 98¢
2026-08-13 · 0xd9395253… · wallet history: $1,713 redeemed / 11 resolutions SELL No
$2,793 @ 98¢
2026-08-14 · 0xd9395253… · wallet history: $1,713 redeemed / 11 resolutions SELL No
$2,789 @ 98¢
2026-08-04 · 0x4cd4c369… · wallet history: $69,054 redeemed / 27 resolutions BUY No
$2,739 @ 98¢
2026-08-11 · 0xf6eab31d… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-by-september-30-396.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.