Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
market:
Yes 0¢ / No 100¢
· liquidity $88,335 · ends 2026-11-03
·
market page ↗Turns on whether official certification alone satisfies 'confirmation' of results by July 31, 2027, or if all three news sources must specifically call the race.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Rules require three sources to call it the same, but fallback to official certification if they don't. Unclear if certification counts as 'confirmed' for the July 31 deadline.
Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
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resolved NO
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resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Over $2M committed to the Infinex public sale?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Over $15M committed to the Trove public sale?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-tom-steyer-win-the-california-governor-election-in-2026.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.