Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

market: Yes 0¢ / No 100¢ · liquidity $287,737 · ends 2026-12-31 · market page ↗

Turns on whether a 26–49 basis point Fed cut counts as 1 cut or 2 cuts (rules specify 1–24 bps = 1 cut and 50 bps = 2 cuts, but gap between 25 and 50 is undefined).

no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering

Resolution rules (verbatim)

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Rounding rule incomplete. While 26–49 bps cuts are rare in practice (Fed typically uses 25 or 50), the rules have explicit ambiguity in this range.

Rules arguments from the market's own traders

Substantive resolution-rules commentary from the market's comment section, joined to each commenter's on-chain position (skin in the game) at collection time. Position ≠ correctness — read the arguments, weigh the incentives.

Big money on this market

Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $39,792 · SELL No $18,330. Displayed as evidence of informed interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.

Disputed precedents with similar wording

Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).

Machine-readable

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