Disputes — live and precedent
When a Polymarket resolution is disputed, UMA tokenholders vote. This page tracks live
disputes on wording-risk markets and accumulates every resolved disputed market as searchable
precedent. Independent; no positions.
Live disputes on tracked markets
Turns on whether incident is attributed to 'NATO' (vs a single NATO member acting unilaterally) and whether target is confirmed Russian.
Turns on whether maritime territory and airspace count as 'Saudi Arabia' for the purposes of military action targeting.
Turns on whether a partial disarmament announcement must be framed as part of an existing or planned disarmament process.
Turns on whether the storm center's position between discrete JMA advisories can be reliably confirmed by 'credible reporting' to count as landfall.
Turns on whether political criticism (e.g., 'bad decision,' 'disaster candidate') qualifies as 'mocks, degrades, or disparages' vs. mere harsh opinion.
Turns on what threshold or quantity of independent sources constitutes a 'consensus of credible reporting' when neither government publicly acknowledges the meeting.
Resolved disputed markets (the precedent tape)
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
resolved YES
2027-12-31 · vol $417,327
Will Wells Fargo or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
resolved NO
2027-12-31 · vol $141,662
Kodiak FDV above $50M one day after launch?
resolved NO
2027-01-01 · vol $1,545,673
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026?
resolved YES
2027-01-01 · vol $0
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026?
resolved NO
2027-01-01 · vol $398,971
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?
resolved YES
2027-01-01 · vol $0
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale?
resolved YES
2027-01-01 · vol $1,158,182
Over $2M committed to the Infinex public sale?
resolved YES
2027-01-01 · vol $731,215
Over $15M committed to the Trove public sale?
resolved NO
2027-01-01 · vol $1,169,626
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?
resolved YES
2027-01-01 · vol $500,118
Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?
resolved YES
2026-12-31 · vol $108,671
Will the US strike 4 countries in 2026?
resolved NO
2026-12-31 · vol $0
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?
resolved YES
2026-12-31 · vol $5,478,819
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?
resolved NO
2026-12-31 · vol $2,533,593
Iran leadership change by March 13?
resolved NO
2026-12-31 · vol $0
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
resolved YES
2026-12-31 · vol $0