unrekt resolver / disputes

Disputes — live and precedent

When a Polymarket resolution is disputed, UMA tokenholders vote. This page tracks live disputes on wording-risk markets and accumulates every resolved disputed market as searchable precedent. Independent; no positions.

Live disputes on tracked markets

NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31? IN DISPUTE
Turns on whether incident is attributed to 'NATO' (vs a single NATO member acting unilaterally) and whether target is confirmed Russian.
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026? IN DISPUTE
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by August 15, 2026? IN DISPUTE
Turns on whether maritime territory and airspace count as 'Saudi Arabia' for the purposes of military action targeting.
Glossop North End AFC vs. Tadcaster Albion AFC: Tadcaster Albion AFC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 IN DISPUTE
Glossop North End AFC vs. Tadcaster Albion AFC: Tadcaster Albion AFC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 IN DISPUTE
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? IN DISPUTE
Glossop North End AFC vs. Tadcaster Albion AFC: Tadcaster Albion AFC 1st Half O/U 1.5 IN DISPUTE
Putin meets with Iranian officials by August 31? IN DISPUTE
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? IN DISPUTE
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? IN DISPUTE
Turns on whether a partial disarmament announcement must be framed as part of an existing or planned disarmament process.
Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in Japan? IN DISPUTE
Turns on whether the storm center's position between discrete JMA advisories can be reliably confirmed by 'credible reporting' to count as landfall.
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026? IN DISPUTE
Turns on whether political criticism (e.g., 'bad decision,' 'disaster candidate') qualifies as 'mocks, degrades, or disparages' vs. mere harsh opinion.
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? IN DISPUTE
Turns on what threshold or quantity of independent sources constitutes a 'consensus of credible reporting' when neither government publicly acknowledges the meeting.
Counter-Strike: LAG Gaming vs SportsBetExpert - Map 2 Winner IN DISPUTE
W15 Yeongwol: Jiyun Oh vs Soo Ha Jang IN DISPUTE

Resolved disputed markets (the precedent tape)

Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? resolved YES 2027-12-31 · vol $417,327
Will Wells Fargo or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? resolved NO 2027-12-31 · vol $141,662
Kodiak FDV above $50M one day after launch? resolved NO 2027-01-01 · vol $1,545,673
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026? resolved YES 2027-01-01 · vol $0
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026? resolved NO 2027-01-01 · vol $398,971
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? resolved YES 2027-01-01 · vol $0
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? resolved YES 2027-01-01 · vol $1,158,182
Over $2M committed to the Infinex public sale? resolved YES 2027-01-01 · vol $731,215
Over $15M committed to the Trove public sale? resolved NO 2027-01-01 · vol $1,169,626
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? resolved YES 2027-01-01 · vol $500,118
Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? resolved YES 2026-12-31 · vol $108,671
Will the US strike 4 countries in 2026? resolved NO 2026-12-31 · vol $0
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? resolved YES 2026-12-31 · vol $5,478,819
Will the US not strike another country before 2027? resolved NO 2026-12-31 · vol $2,533,593
Iran leadership change by March 13? resolved NO 2026-12-31 · vol $0
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? resolved YES 2026-12-31 · vol $0