NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?
market:
Yes 100¢ / No 0¢
· liquidity $1,207,823 · ends 2026-08-31
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market page ↗
Turns on whether incident is attributed to 'NATO' (vs a single NATO member acting unilaterally) and whether target is confirmed Russian.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a NATO military downs another Russian drone by any means (kinetic, jammer, etc.) between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM Kyiv Time.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (CEST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the incident, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
Attribution and ownership ambiguous if incident involves NATO member but not NATO coordination; consensus required but criteria could conflict
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY Yes $39,322 · SELL Yes $11,680 · BUY No $2,161. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
SELL Yes
$6,064 @ 96¢
2026-08-18 · 0x35bbbad2… · wallet history: $10,544 redeemed / 5 resolutions
BUY Yes
$4,058 @ 97¢
2026-08-19 · 0x0b46c199… · wallet history: $21,605 redeemed / 16 resolutions
BUY Yes
$3,914 @ 98¢
2026-08-20 · 0x7c3db723… · wallet history: $48,850 redeemed / 8 resolutions
BUY Yes
$3,408 @ 92¢
2026-08-16 · 0x35bbbad2… · wallet history: $10,544 redeemed / 5 resolutions
BUY Yes
$2,006 @ 98¢
2026-08-19 · 0xc62796d7… · wallet history: $82,322 redeemed / 38 resolutions
BUY Yes
$1,927 @ 93¢
2026-08-19 · 0x9a3fa403… · wallet history: $48,633 redeemed / 25 resolutions
BUY Yes
$1,674 @ 93¢
2026-08-19 · 0x9a3fa403… · wallet history: $48,633 redeemed / 25 resolutions
BUY Yes
$1,519 @ 99¢
2026-08-19 · 0x9453a389… · wallet history: $12,275 redeemed / 23 resolutions
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/nato-downs-another-russian-drone-by-august-31-20260726215001931.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.