Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.

'Acknowledged disarmament process' is undefined—unclear if isolated partial-disarmament statements qualify or if they must reference a broader process framework.

Rules arguments from the market's own traders

Substantive resolution-rules commentary from the market's comment section, joined to each commenter's on-chain position (skin in the game) at collection time. Position ≠ correctness — read the arguments, weigh the incentives.

M2sx92kljs42 holds $25993 on No 2026-07-31

Hamas might very well agree to disarm. December 31st is still a long time from now. But Hamas has not, as of yet, officially agreed to disarm. What we have right now is a U.S. announcement that a deal has been reached, while neither of the parties appears to have formally approved or announced the agreement themselves. Hamas officials have provided vague acknowledgments of a framework, while also disputing that it amounts to actual disarmament. The market wording is pretty explicit: "Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered." So let's see what Hamas actually has to say on the matter. Good luck to everyone.

yen4u holds $18318 on No 2026-07-31

Rules were different, but also both the US and Iran agreed to the deal. Israel was not a signatory to this deal. I think this market will go Yes later anyway but it's crazy if it resolves right now imo.

Vanquish holds $5123 on Yes 2026-08-18

"wouldn't be enough" ? If they actually start surrendering weapons in 30d, even without formal Israeli approval, it sounds moot since we're talking about actual disarmament, we'd be way past the announcements or commitments defined in the rules so far, no?

MEPP holds $3495 on No 2026-08-01

Trumps words: “As disarmament is completed, Israeli forces will withdraw” Hamas says israel must withdraw first then disarm (which is hard to believe they would ever give up its weapons)

greengasper holds $2816 on Yes 2026-08-20

The board of Polymarket needs to review itself this is a ridiculous market. A month ago, the real odds that Hamas would ever agree to disarm were less than 5% for everyone, even for decision makers in Israel, because disarmament is their primary political symbol. Then in a major breakthrough, they did agree, which reflects the true spirit of this market. Their disarmament agreement was included in a deal that Israel is trying hard to block. So, if Israel is trying to block the disarmament process itself, why should this market be named Will Hamas agree to Disarm? It should be rather titled: Will Hamas Disarmement process begin ? The market will definitely resolve to Yes but I'm not sure when. Either way polymarket should stop adding rediculous updates

Roeman holds $742 on Yes 2026-08-18

The point when polymarket added israel to the mix, even though they are never mentioned in the rules it completely ruined this market. The only way this market is yes now is if hamas says “we will disarm regardless if israel bombs the entire country”

Big money on this market

Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY Yes $33,147 · SELL No $21,358 · BUY No $20,093 · SELL Yes $17,679. Displayed as evidence of informed interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.

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