unrekt resolver / dossier

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?

market: Yes 85¢ / No 15¢ · liquidity $33,528 · ends 2026-10-01 · market page ↗
Turns on what threshold or quantity of independent sources constitutes a 'consensus of credible reporting' when neither government publicly acknowledges the meeting.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering

Resolution rules (verbatim)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Rule allows resolution via 'consensus of credible reporting' if not publicly acknowledged by government, but does not define the threshold (2 sources? 3? majority?).

Big money on this market

Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $1,779. Displayed as evidence of informed interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.

BUY No $1,226 @ 25¢ 2026-08-22 · 0x8597ca63… · wallet history: $27,041 redeemed / 11 resolutions
BUY No $553 @ 24¢ 2026-08-22 · 0x8597ca63… · wallet history: $27,041 redeemed / 11 resolutions

Disputed precedents with similar wording

Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).

Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will the US not strike another country before 2027? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2026-12-31

Machine-readable

This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/israel-x-lebanon-diplomatic-meeting-by-september-30-2026-20260810145737301.json. Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.

unrekt resolver — independent resolution intelligence for prediction markets. We analyse how markets will resolve (rules, wording, precedent), not what will happen. We hold no positions. Every published read is timestamped and graded by the market's actual resolution. all wording-risk markets