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Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

market: Yes 41¢ / No 59¢ · liquidity $525,408 · ends 2026-09-16 · market page ↗
Turns on how fractional basis point changes round when not expressed in standard 25 bps increments.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering

Resolution rules (verbatim)

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Rule says 'rounded up to nearest 25' but doesn't specify minimum deviation (e.g., does 6.25 bps round to 25?).

Big money on this market

Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY Yes $254,795 · SELL Yes $102,971 · BUY No $36,947 · SELL No $9,956. Displayed as evidence of informed interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.

BUY Yes $37,230 @ 73¢ 2026-08-20 · 0xdac7d70f… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions
BUY Yes $32,525 @ 73¢ 2026-08-20 · 0x7339652b… · wallet history: $24,726 redeemed / 2 resolutions
BUY Yes $30,615 @ 71¢ 2026-08-19 · 0x7b02b2ba… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions
SELL Yes $30,391 @ 70¢ 2026-08-19 · 0xf5592765… · wallet history: $809,500 redeemed / 34 resolutions
BUY Yes $28,800 @ 72¢ 2026-08-20 · 0xdac7d70f… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions
SELL Yes $19,928 @ 70¢ 2026-08-19 · 0xf5592765… · wallet history: $809,500 redeemed / 34 resolutions
SELL Yes $15,283 @ 72¢ 2026-08-20 · 0xdb38fc28… · wallet history: $617,519 redeemed / 58 resolutions
BUY No $13,348 @ 28¢ 2026-08-20 · 0x7b02b2ba… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions

Disputed precedents with similar wording

Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).

Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Iran leadership change by March 13? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2026-12-31

Machine-readable

This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-september-2026-meeting-615.json. Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.

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