Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
market:
Yes 1¢ / No 99¢
· liquidity $218,013 · ends 2028-11-07
·
market page ↗Turns on whether winning the nomination without formally accepting it counts as winning, or if acceptance is a separate required event.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Identical to 559694; 'wins and accepts' is conjunctive; unclear if nominee can win and then decline.
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $20,933 · SELL No $20,079 · BUY Yes $6,141 · SELL Yes $500. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY Yes
$3,785 @ 1¢
2026-07-21 · 0x8ec829f0… · wallet history: $25,009 redeemed / 9 resolutions BUY No
$1,861 @ 99¢
2026-08-13 · 0x9523ff3f… · wallet history: $2,811 redeemed / 13 resolutions SELL No
$1,859 @ 99¢
2026-08-13 · 0x9523ff3f… · wallet history: $2,811 redeemed / 13 resolutions BUY Yes
$1,833 @ 1¢
2026-07-21 · 0x8ec829f0… · wallet history: $25,009 redeemed / 9 resolutions SELL No
$1,492 @ 99¢
2026-06-30 · 0x0af5d195… · wallet history: $102 redeemed / 1 resolutions BUY No
$1,464 @ 99¢
2026-06-30 · 0x0af5d195… · wallet history: $102 redeemed / 1 resolutions BUY No
$1,180 @ 99¢
2026-07-17 · 0x7449904c… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions SELL No
$1,179 @ 99¢
2026-07-17 · 0x7449904c… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
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Will the US not strike another country before 2027?
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Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-gretchen-whitmer-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-676.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.