Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?
market:
Yes 0¢ / No 100¢
· liquidity $90,692 · ends 2026-09-01
·
market page ↗Turns on whether an Israeli government announcement of withdrawal is binding if credible reporting consensus contradicts it.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Rules allow Israeli announcement OR credible reporting consensus as sources; these could conflict if Israel announces withdrawal but journalists deny it occurred.
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $90,667 · SELL No $50,839. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY No
$11,445 @ 97¢
2026-07-29 · 0x21e25662… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions BUY No
$11,431 @ 97¢
2026-07-26 · 0x21e25662… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions BUY No
$11,376 @ 97¢
2026-07-21 · 0x21e25662… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions SELL No
$11,376 @ 97¢
2026-07-21 · 0x21e25662… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions BUY No
$11,339 @ 97¢
2026-07-23 · 0x21e25662… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions SELL No
$11,332 @ 97¢
2026-07-22 · 0x21e25662… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions BUY No
$9,322 @ 97¢
2026-07-06 · 0xdbf73adb… · wallet history: $101,427 redeemed / 26 resolutions SELL No
$6,517 @ 98¢
2026-07-13 · 0x6bab66c4… · wallet history: $3,114 redeemed / 2 resolutions Disputed precedents with similar wording
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Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-by-august-31-2026.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.