Xi Jinping out before 2027?
market:
Yes 5¢ / No 95¢
· liquidity $176,671 · ends 2026-12-31
·
market page ↗Turns on whether temporary prevention from performing duties (e.g., hospitalization, brief detention, illness) counts as being 'removed from power' versus only permanent removal.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rule says 'any period of time' but also 'permanent removal'; temporary incapacity may be ambiguous
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $123,239 · SELL No $109,669 · BUY Yes $1,649. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
SELL No
$68,061 @ 96¢
2026-08-19 · 0x8afa03dd… · wallet history: $46,706 redeemed / 20 resolutions BUY No
$30,670 @ 96¢
2026-08-19 · 0x40047c2a… · wallet history: $160,889 redeemed / 42 resolutions SELL No
$14,573 @ 96¢
2026-08-19 · 0xc682d794… · wallet history: $58,435 redeemed / 4 resolutions BUY No
$12,441 @ 96¢
2026-08-19 · 0x40047c2a… · wallet history: $160,889 redeemed / 42 resolutions BUY No
$10,516 @ 96¢
2026-08-19 · 0x40047c2a… · wallet history: $160,889 redeemed / 42 resolutions BUY No
$9,560 @ 96¢
2026-08-19 · 0x40047c2a… · wallet history: $160,889 redeemed / 42 resolutions BUY No
$7,872 @ 96¢
2026-08-19 · 0x40047c2a… · wallet history: $160,889 redeemed / 42 resolutions BUY No
$6,985 @ 96¢
2026-08-16 · 0x8afa03dd… · wallet history: $46,706 redeemed / 20 resolutions Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/xi-jinping-out-before-2027.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.