Will Alexander Vindman be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida?
market:
Yes 0¢ / No 100¢
· liquidity $155,695 · ends 2026-08-18
·
market page ↗Turns on whether 'first announcement of the results from the Florida Democratic party' means preliminary/unverified results or official certified results if they diverge.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Florida.
If no 2026 Florida Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Florida Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Rule prioritizes party's 'first announcement' over official state certification. If party announces preliminary results before state certification finalizes, could resolve on preliminary numbers despite official state results differing.
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $12,796 · BUY Yes $10,486 · SELL Yes $1,936 · SELL No $499. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY No
$8,831 @ 100¢
2026-08-19 · 0x74f1b894… · wallet history: $33,178 redeemed / 81 resolutions BUY No
$3,196 @ 100¢
2026-08-18 · 0x74f1b894… · wallet history: $33,178 redeemed / 81 resolutions BUY Yes
$2,262 @ 88¢
2026-02-04 · 0x1237d0db… · wallet history: $1,663 redeemed / 54 resolutions BUY Yes
$1,813 @ 91¢
2026-08-12 · 0x7e5972bf… · wallet history: $64,139 redeemed / 134 resolutions BUY Yes
$1,752 @ 88¢
2026-08-12 · 0x7e5972bf… · wallet history: $64,139 redeemed / 134 resolutions BUY Yes
$1,196 @ 88¢
2026-01-30 · 0x83935dee… · wallet history: $1,128 redeemed / 14 resolutions BUY Yes
$990 @ 92¢
2026-08-15 · 0x34ab33da… · wallet history: $82,961 redeemed / 119 resolutions BUY No
$769 @ 99¢
2026-08-18 · 0x74f1b894… · wallet history: $33,178 redeemed / 81 resolutions Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Iran leadership change by March 13?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-alexander-vindman-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-senate-in-florida.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.