Iran leadership change by September 30?
market:
Yes 3¢ / No 97¢
· liquidity $185,157 · ends 2026-09-30
·
market page ↗Turns on whether loss of de facto leadership requires formal removal/detention or can occur via sidelining/factional curtailment without official announcement.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
'De facto leader' is inherently ambiguous; unclear whether delegation, sidelining, or factional conflict triggers a Yes, or only official removal/detention/announcement.
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $83,006 · SELL No $21,641 · SELL Yes $4,055 · BUY Yes $2,804. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY No
$11,594 @ 95¢
2026-08-16 · 0x8afa03dd… · wallet history: $46,706 redeemed / 20 resolutions BUY No
$7,863 @ 90¢
2026-08-08 · 0x6d9fc316… · wallet history: $36 redeemed / 1 resolutions BUY No
$7,122 @ 91¢
2026-07-30 · 0xb10047d6… · wallet history: $28,214 redeemed / 10 resolutions BUY No
$6,614 @ 91¢
2026-07-28 · 0xb10047d6… · wallet history: $28,214 redeemed / 10 resolutions BUY No
$4,750 @ 95¢
2026-08-16 · 0xc682d794… · wallet history: $58,435 redeemed / 4 resolutions BUY No
$4,572 @ 91¢
2026-08-01 · 0x6d9fc316… · wallet history: $36 redeemed / 1 resolutions BUY No
$4,500 @ 92¢
2026-08-08 · 0x8c57f67a… · wallet history: $154,228 redeemed / 76 resolutions SELL No
$4,450 @ 89¢
2026-08-01 · 0x6d9fc316… · wallet history: $36 redeemed / 1 resolutions Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Iran leadership change by March 13?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/iran-leadership-change-by-september-30-20260629144005163-739-824.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.