Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
market:
Yes 9¢ / No 91¢
· liquidity $108,096 · ends 2027-06-30
·
market page ↗Turns on whether limited military strikes qualify as a 'military offensive intended to establish control over any portion' of Taiwan.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Requires intent to establish control but does not specify minimum scale—isolated strikes vs. full-scale invasion could both claim to 'intend control.'
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $64,143 · SELL No $40,754 · BUY Yes $1,000. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
SELL No
$8,987 @ 90¢
2026-07-19 · 0x9c164883… · wallet history: $49,917 redeemed / 4 resolutions SELL No
$5,460 @ 89¢
2026-07-21 · 0x9f5b209a… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions BUY No
$5,000 @ 89¢
2026-07-01 · 0x94bde001… · wallet history: $48,999 redeemed / 13 resolutions SELL No
$4,773 @ 91¢
2026-07-19 · 0xe8d6abc4… · wallet history: $55 redeemed / 5 resolutions BUY No
$4,450 @ 89¢
2026-07-01 · 0x0cbaab2d… · wallet history: $70,213 redeemed / 23 resolutions BUY No
$4,450 @ 89¢
2026-06-30 · 0x94bde001… · wallet history: $48,999 redeemed / 13 resolutions BUY No
$4,450 @ 89¢
2026-06-30 · 0x94bde001… · wallet history: $48,999 redeemed / 13 resolutions BUY No
$4,200 @ 92¢
2026-07-15 · 0x6d8cf07d… · wallet history: $103,910 redeemed / 58 resolutions Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
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DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Iran leadership change by March 13?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2027.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.