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China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

market: Yes 33¢ / No 67¢ · liquidity $107,632 · ends 2026-12-31 · market page ↗
Turns on whether warning shots, unpopulated-area artillery fire, or minor-damage ramming count as military encounter under the rules.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering

Resolution rules (verbatim)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Definitions require judgment calls around intent, location, and damage threshold

Big money on this market

Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $93,352 · BUY Yes $17,987 · SELL Yes $485. Displayed as evidence of informed interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.

BUY No $39,705 @ 78¢ 2026-08-20 · 0xaef25b10… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions
BUY No $17,239 @ 67¢ 2026-08-18 · 0xa18c5cf2… · wallet history: $41,479 redeemed / 17 resolutions
BUY No $13,110 @ 69¢ 2026-08-19 · 0x43b4e4bf… · wallet history: $20,346 redeemed / 10 resolutions
BUY No $3,780 @ 69¢ 2026-08-19 · 0x43b4e4bf… · wallet history: $20,346 redeemed / 10 resolutions
BUY No $3,450 @ 69¢ 2026-08-11 · 0x4478d7bd… · wallet history: $3,260 redeemed / 1 resolutions
BUY No $3,350 @ 67¢ 2026-08-18 · 0x7c3db723… · wallet history: $48,850 redeemed / 8 resolutions
BUY Yes $3,211 @ 34¢ 2026-08-17 · 0x93fb8127… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions
BUY Yes $2,460 @ 30¢ 2026-08-07 · 0x93fb8127… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions

Disputed precedents with similar wording

Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).

Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will the US not strike another country before 2027? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Will the US strike 4 countries in 2026? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2026-12-31

Machine-readable

This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/china-x-philippines-military-clash-before-2027-20260723214807932.json. Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.

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