Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
market:
Yes 1¢ / No 99¢
· liquidity $111,899 · ends 2026-09-30
·
market page ↗Turns on whether an attack lacking explicit intent to establish political control still qualifies as a 'military offensive intended to establish control'.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The word 'intended' introduces judgment about unstated motives. A military strike could be interpreted as defensive or demonstrative rather than conquest-oriented; resolution source (consensus of credible reporting) may disagree on intent.
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $74,709 · SELL No $34,502. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
SELL No
$8,094 @ 99¢
2026-08-03 · 0xc97b0b2a… · wallet history: $36,275 redeemed / 6 resolutions BUY No
$4,800 @ 99¢
2026-08-12 · 0x0ead7a48… · wallet history: $109,403 redeemed / 9 resolutions SELL No
$3,844 @ 99¢
2026-08-08 · 0xd991f59a… · wallet history: $135,820 redeemed / 76 resolutions SELL No
$3,296 @ 99¢
2026-08-01 · 0x2d886731… · wallet history: $118,320 redeemed / 66 resolutions BUY No
$3,000 @ 99¢
2026-08-01 · 0x5bd903e3… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions BUY No
$3,000 @ 99¢
2026-08-01 · 0x68889d26… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions BUY No
$3,000 @ 99¢
2026-08-01 · 0xaa18545a… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions BUY No
$3,000 @ 99¢
2026-08-01 · 0x68889d26… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Will the US strike 4 countries in 2026?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-september-30-2026.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.