{
 "market_id": "1633606",
 "slug": "will-china-invade-taiwan-by-september-30-2026",
 "question": "Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?",
 "event_slug": "will-china-invade-taiwan-by-september-30-2026",
 "event_title": "Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?",
 "resolution_text": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
 "end_date": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z",
 "liquidity": 113254.74605,
 "volume24h": 21424.435454,
 "yes_price": 0.008,
 "no_price": 0.992,
 "active": true,
 "closed": false,
 "crux_class": "wording_risk",
 "crux": "Turns on whether an attack lacking explicit intent to establish political control still qualifies as a 'military offensive intended to establish control'.",
 "crux_note": "The word 'intended' introduces judgment about unstated motives. A military strike could be interpreted as defensive or demonstrative rather than conquest-oriented; resolution source (consensus of credible reporting) may disagree on intent.",
 "classified_at": "2026-08-20T16:24:34.677Z",
 "our_read": null,
 "our_read_note": null,
 "read_price_at": null,
 "read_published_at": null,
 "resolved_outcome": null,
 "graded": null,
 "last_updated": "2026-09-01T10:23:07.067Z"
}