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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

market: Yes 27¢ / No 73¢ · liquidity $490,720 · ends 2026-10-28 · market page ↗
Turns on whether small changes (e.g., 0.1 or 12.4 bps) round to 0 or 25 bps under 'rounded up to the nearest 25'.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering

Resolution rules (verbatim)

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Rule says 'rounded up to nearest 25' with example 12.5→25, but the interplay between 'round up' (ceiling) and 'nearest' (standard rounding) is ambiguous for edge cases below 12.5 bps.

Big money on this market

Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $5,385 · BUY Yes $5,378 · SELL Yes $5,152 · SELL No $4,850. Displayed as evidence of informed interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.

BUY No $2,280 @ 76¢ 2026-08-18 · 0x5b911531… · wallet history: $64,743 redeemed / 41 resolutions
BUY No $2,130 @ 71¢ 2026-07-26 · 0x30e44387… · wallet history: $1,252 redeemed / 2 resolutions
BUY Yes $2,124 @ 23¢ 2026-08-07 · 0x510904c9… · wallet history: $5,827 redeemed / 6 resolutions
SELL Yes $1,766 @ 22¢ 2026-07-16 · 0xeb6f0a13… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 2 resolutions
SELL No $1,154 @ 76¢ 2026-07-28 · 0x30e44387… · wallet history: $1,252 redeemed / 2 resolutions
SELL Yes $1,138 @ 26¢ 2026-07-29 · 0xb635ed37… · wallet history: $3,451 redeemed / 11 resolutions
SELL No $1,109 @ 75¢ 2026-07-28 · 0x30e44387… · wallet history: $1,252 redeemed / 2 resolutions
SELL Yes $1,022 @ 24¢ 2026-07-29 · 0xb635ed37… · wallet history: $3,451 redeemed / 11 resolutions

Disputed precedents with similar wording

Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).

Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will the US not strike another country before 2027? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Will the US strike 4 countries in 2026? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2026-12-31

Machine-readable

This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260617190324032.json. Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.

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