Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
market:
Yes 16¢ / No 84¢
· liquidity $769,587 · ends 2026-12-31
·
market page ↗Turns on whether a limited military strike targeting specific assets (not aimed at territorial conquest) counts as 'an offensive intended to establish control.'
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
'Intended to establish control' could exclude limited air campaigns or strikes if they lack explicit territorial goal
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $141,252 · SELL No $70,787 · BUY Yes $22,391 · SELL Yes $10,706. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY No
$19,920 @ 83¢
2026-08-17 · 0x3c918a8e… · wallet history: $23,175 redeemed / 6 resolutions BUY Yes
$17,532 @ 18¢
2026-08-18 · 0x696de7b6… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions BUY No
$16,600 @ 83¢
2026-08-19 · 0xdf705353… · wallet history: $349,763 redeemed / 26 resolutions BUY No
$14,940 @ 83¢
2026-08-20 · 0x3c918a8e… · wallet history: $23,175 redeemed / 6 resolutions SELL No
$10,881 @ 83¢
2026-08-17 · 0xdf17f4a8… · wallet history: $11,042 redeemed / 2 resolutions BUY No
$10,000 @ 83¢
2026-08-20 · 0x8b881cf0… · wallet history: $54,461 redeemed / 14 resolutions SELL No
$9,649 @ 83¢
2026-08-17 · 0x6f40bd79… · wallet history: $27,375 redeemed / 12 resolutions BUY No
$8,300 @ 83¢
2026-08-19 · 0x0260366a… · wallet history: $41,256 redeemed / 6 resolutions Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Will the US strike 4 countries in 2026?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.