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Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

market: Yes 2¢ / No 98¢ · liquidity $61,095 · ends 2027-01-01 · market page ↗
Turns on whether a formal U.S. declaration or announcement of withdrawal intent counts as 'formally initiates' without submitting the Article 13 notice of denunciation.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering

Resolution rules (verbatim)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

The rules list 'formally initiates' OR 'provides official notice' as alternatives. 'Formally initiates' is undefined; in diplomacy this could mean a presidential announcement before the binding Article 13 legal process begins, creating ambiguity over early vs. complete initiation.

Disputed precedents with similar wording

Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).

Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will the US not strike another country before 2027? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Iran leadership change by March 13? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2026-12-31

Machine-readable

This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-us-withdraw-from-nato-before-2027-348-975-598-224-737.json. Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.

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