{
 "market_id": "665480",
 "slug": "will-us-withdraw-from-nato-before-2027-348-975-598-224-737",
 "question": "Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?",
 "event_slug": "will-us-withdraw-from-nato-before-2027",
 "event_title": "Will US withdraw from NATO by...?",
 "resolution_text": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.\n\nAny action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.\n\nThe U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to \"Yes\". \n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
 "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z",
 "liquidity": 61047.9706,
 "volume24h": 9382.78,
 "yes_price": 0.018,
 "no_price": 0.982,
 "active": true,
 "closed": false,
 "crux_class": "wording_risk",
 "crux": "Turns on whether a formal U.S. declaration or announcement of withdrawal intent counts as 'formally initiates' without submitting the Article 13 notice of denunciation.",
 "crux_note": "The rules list 'formally initiates' OR 'provides official notice' as alternatives. 'Formally initiates' is undefined; in diplomacy this could mean a presidential announcement before the binding Article 13 legal process begins, creating ambiguity over early vs. complete initiation.",
 "classified_at": "2026-09-07T10:24:25.370Z",
 "our_read": null,
 "our_read_note": null,
 "read_price_at": null,
 "read_published_at": null,
 "resolved_outcome": null,
 "graded": null,
 "last_updated": "2026-09-07T12:23:08.622Z"
}