Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
market:
Yes 6¢ / No 94¢
· liquidity $44,610 · ends 2026-09-20
·
market page ↗Turns on whether 'consensus of credible reporting' indicating irregularities overrides the official government seat count, or if official government sources are always binding.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Conflicting resolution sources: rules cite both 'consensus of credible reporting' and 'official results' from CEC; contested Russian elections could trigger ambiguity.
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $1,053 · BUY Yes $410. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY No
$1,053 @ 97¢
2026-08-23 · 0x5c14eb6a… · wallet history: $140,679 redeemed / 18 resolutions BUY Yes
$410 @ 10¢
2026-06-30 · 0x288999fc… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-12-31
Will Wells Fargo or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2027-12-31
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-united-russia-win-fewer-than-280-seats-in-the-next-russian-state-duma-election.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.