Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
market:
Yes 8¢ / No 92¢
· liquidity $52,989 · ends 2026-12-31
·
market page ↗Turns on whether an offensive with stated non-territorial goals (e.g., deterrence, infrastructure destruction, regime change) counts as 'intended to establish control' if it results in territorial occupation.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rule requires intent to establish territory; intent is subjective and contestable. An invasion for stated purposes (punishment, protection, deterrence) that produces de facto control may not satisfy the 'intended' clause depending on how intent is interpreted.
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $63,851 · SELL No $20,757 · BUY Yes $2,122. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY No
$6,704 @ 92¢
2026-07-15 · 0xb3bd9945… · wallet history: $79,301 redeemed / 23 resolutions SELL No
$5,150 @ 90¢
2026-07-09 · 0xda47ab9c… · wallet history: $27,688 redeemed / 30 resolutions BUY No
$5,000 @ 89¢
2026-06-04 · 0x1de92e09… · wallet history: $375,361 redeemed / 84 resolutions BUY No
$5,000 @ 88¢
2026-06-02 · 0x8b881cf0… · wallet history: $54,461 redeemed / 14 resolutions BUY No
$3,000 @ 87¢
2026-05-28 · 0x8b881cf0… · wallet history: $54,461 redeemed / 14 resolutions BUY No
$3,000 @ 91¢
2026-06-20 · 0x1de92e09… · wallet history: $375,361 redeemed / 84 resolutions BUY No
$3,000 @ 92¢
2026-07-12 · 0x1de92e09… · wallet history: $375,361 redeemed / 84 resolutions SELL No
$2,929 @ 87¢
2026-06-03 · 0x826e59cc… · wallet history: $17,320 redeemed / 37 resolutions Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-russia-invade-another-country-in-2026.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.