{
 "market_id": "1194695",
 "slug": "will-russia-invade-another-country-in-2026",
 "question": "Will Russia invade another country in 2026?",
 "event_slug": "will-russia-invade-another-country-in-2026",
 "event_title": "Will Russia invade another country in 2026?",
 "resolution_text": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
 "end_date": "2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z",
 "liquidity": 52988.5453,
 "volume24h": 8858.86,
 "yes_price": 0.075,
 "no_price": 0.925,
 "active": true,
 "closed": false,
 "crux_class": "wording_risk",
 "crux": "Turns on whether an offensive with stated non-territorial goals (e.g., deterrence, infrastructure destruction, regime change) counts as 'intended to establish control' if it results in territorial occupation.",
 "crux_note": "Rule requires intent to establish territory; intent is subjective and contestable. An invasion for stated purposes (punishment, protection, deterrence) that produces de facto control may not satisfy the 'intended' clause depending on how intent is interpreted.",
 "classified_at": "2026-08-26T01:24:26.177Z",
 "our_read": null,
 "our_read_note": null,
 "read_price_at": null,
 "read_published_at": null,
 "resolved_outcome": null,
 "graded": null,
 "last_updated": "2026-08-27T00:23:07.614Z"
}