Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?
market:
Yes 8¢ / No 92¢
· liquidity $62,949 · ends 2025-12-31
·
market page ↗Turns on whether ambiguous military operations qualify as 'confirmed Russian operatives' under the 'consensus of credible sources' standard.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Grey zone clause attempts to include deniable ops (Crimea precedent) but 'confirmed' and 'consensus' are undefined. Real disputes could hinge on how much evidence/agreement is needed.
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $72,803 · BUY Yes $4,307. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY No
$10,000 @ 93¢
2026-07-24 · 0x1de92e09… · wallet history: $375,361 redeemed / 84 resolutions BUY No
$9,500 @ 95¢
2026-08-13 · 0xe1203cdb… · wallet history: $9,211 redeemed / 2 resolutions BUY No
$4,750 @ 95¢
2026-08-20 · 0xe1203cdb… · wallet history: $9,211 redeemed / 2 resolutions BUY No
$4,650 @ 93¢
2026-07-29 · 0xc9dcc3d9… · wallet history: $60,000 redeemed / 2 resolutions BUY No
$3,900 @ 95¢
2026-07-13 · 0x1de92e09… · wallet history: $375,361 redeemed / 84 resolutions BUY No
$3,000 @ 95¢
2026-07-14 · 0x1de92e09… · wallet history: $375,361 redeemed / 84 resolutions BUY No
$2,924 @ 94¢
2026-07-12 · 0x1de92e09… · wallet history: $375,361 redeemed / 84 resolutions BUY No
$2,000 @ 93¢
2026-07-27 · 0x1de92e09… · wallet history: $375,361 redeemed / 84 resolutions Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Iran leadership change by March 13?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-by-december-31-2026.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.