{
 "market_id": "2749367",
 "slug": "will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-by-december-31-2026",
 "question": "Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?",
 "event_slug": "will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-in-2025",
 "event_title": "Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?",
 "resolution_text": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.\n\nHybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.",
 "end_date": "2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z",
 "liquidity": 62949.3247,
 "volume24h": 10675.611044000001,
 "yes_price": 0.075,
 "no_price": 0.925,
 "active": true,
 "closed": false,
 "crux_class": "wording_risk",
 "crux": "Turns on whether ambiguous military operations qualify as 'confirmed Russian operatives' under the 'consensus of credible sources' standard.",
 "crux_note": "Grey zone clause attempts to include deniable ops (Crimea precedent) but 'confirmed' and 'consensus' are undefined. Real disputes could hinge on how much evidence/agreement is needed.",
 "classified_at": "2026-08-21T05:24:42.023Z",
 "our_read": null,
 "our_read_note": null,
 "read_price_at": null,
 "read_published_at": null,
 "resolved_outcome": null,
 "graded": null,
 "last_updated": "2026-08-29T20:23:08.144Z"
}