Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?
market:
Yes 0¢ / No 100¢
· liquidity $45,381 · ends 2026-08-21
·
market page ↗Turns on whether a major version release not explicitly named GPT-6 counts as a 'recognized successor to GPT-5' or is excluded as 'similar to GPT-5.5' point release.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Boundary between point release (blocked) and recognized successor (allowed) unclear when OpenAI uses non-GPT-6 branding for major release.
Rules arguments from the market's own traders
Substantive resolution-rules commentary from the market's comment section, joined to each
commenter's on-chain position (skin in the game) at collection time. Position ≠ correctness — read the
arguments, weigh the incentives.
0xFB955D7154D2f103c3a3bC6f773C28741540d9f1-1767719546709 no position 2026-08-10
Does this not clearly say that if the model is released with GPT ASTRA it wont be counted?
GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
RATHMA4 no position 2026-08-08
WILL ASTRA BE COUNTED AS 6 ? RULE IS VAGUE
Enes369 no position 2026-01-31
After superbowl adds exposure they will definitly release Gpt-6 (even thought it will just be 5.3) marketing
s1g no position 2025-08-08
"GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-5o would count)" whoever writes these rules is retarded
birgit no position 2025-08-08
"GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-5o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution." looks like a typo. Rules authors should have to post collateral that they lose if a clarifying change is made to the rules. Sloppy, predatory, not what this site wants.
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $39,500 · SELL No $10,550 · BUY Yes $1,091 · SELL Yes $938. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY No
$3,490 @ 100¢
2026-08-19 · 0x3eae5798… · wallet history: $157,793 redeemed / 27 resolutions BUY No
$3,219 @ 81¢
2026-07-27 · 0xb10047d6… · wallet history: $28,214 redeemed / 10 resolutions BUY No
$2,997 @ 100¢
2026-08-21 · 0x1d620ed6… · wallet history: $172,876 redeemed / 28 resolutions BUY No
$2,966 @ 91¢
2026-08-06 · 0x3eae5798… · wallet history: $157,793 redeemed / 27 resolutions SELL No
$2,422 @ 96¢
2026-08-12 · 0x62772d4d… · wallet history: $1,478 redeemed / 1 resolutions BUY No
$1,865 @ 98¢
2026-08-19 · 0x4d1bcbae… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions SELL No
$1,622 @ 99¢
2026-08-18 · 0x6e664f19… · wallet history: $1,572 redeemed / 4 resolutions BUY No
$1,351 @ 92¢
2026-08-06 · 0x3eae5798… · wallet history: $157,793 redeemed / 27 resolutions Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
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Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-gpt-6-be-released-by-august-21-2026.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.