{
 "market_id": "2853462",
 "slug": "will-gpt-6-be-released-by-august-21-2026",
 "question": "Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?",
 "event_slug": "gpt-6-released-by",
 "event_title": "GPT-6 released by…?",
 "resolution_text": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.\n\nGPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
 "end_date": "2026-08-21T00:00:00.000Z",
 "liquidity": 45380.87899,
 "volume24h": 22727.475,
 "yes_price": 0.0005,
 "no_price": 0.9995,
 "active": true,
 "closed": false,
 "crux_class": "wording_risk",
 "crux": "Turns on whether a major version release not explicitly named GPT-6 counts as a 'recognized successor to GPT-5' or is excluded as 'similar to GPT-5.5' point release.",
 "crux_note": "Boundary between point release (blocked) and recognized successor (allowed) unclear when OpenAI uses non-GPT-6 branding for major release.",
 "classified_at": "2026-08-20T13:44:30.005Z",
 "our_read": null,
 "our_read_note": null,
 "read_price_at": null,
 "read_published_at": null,
 "resolved_outcome": null,
 "graded": null,
 "last_updated": "2026-08-22T05:23:08.166Z"
}