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Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?

market: Yes 88¢ / No 12¢ · liquidity $39,455 · ends 2026-09-20 · market page ↗
Turns on whether market resolves as binary (Yes if AfD wins, No if any other party wins) or as multi-outcome (resolves to the name of the party that actually won).
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering

Resolution rules (verbatim)

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).

Question phrased as binary 'Will AfD win?' but rules state 'will resolve to the political party that wins,' creating ambiguity about resolution target format.

Big money on this market

Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY Yes $19,576 · SELL Yes $6,547 · BUY No $1,152 · SELL No $407. Displayed as evidence of informed interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.

BUY Yes $3,220 @ 85¢ 2026-08-19 · 0x8afa03dd… · wallet history: $46,706 redeemed / 20 resolutions
BUY Yes $2,937 @ 83¢ 2026-07-17 · 0x6640bd87… · wallet history: $79,144 redeemed / 16 resolutions
BUY Yes $1,790 @ 87¢ 2026-08-21 · 0xe52c0a13… · wallet history: $776,634 redeemed / 19 resolutions
SELL Yes $1,660 @ 83¢ 2026-08-12 · 0xf2aa8381… · wallet history: $7,947 redeemed / 28 resolutions
BUY Yes $1,649 @ 72¢ 2026-06-30 · 0xf2aa8381… · wallet history: $7,947 redeemed / 28 resolutions
BUY Yes $1,128 @ 82¢ 2026-07-06 · 0x18b9368f… · wallet history: $210 redeemed / 9 resolutions
SELL Yes $1,013 @ 83¢ 2026-08-11 · 0xf2aa8381… · wallet history: $7,947 redeemed / 28 resolutions
BUY Yes $1,003 @ 85¢ 2026-08-01 · 0x1e5b18fc… · wallet history: $64 redeemed / 5 resolutions

Disputed precedents with similar wording

Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).

Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2027-12-31
Will Wells Fargo or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2027-12-31
Over $15M committed to the Trove public sale? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2027-01-01

Machine-readable

This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-afd-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-mecklenburg-vorpommern-parliamentary-elections.json. Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.

unrekt resolver — independent resolution intelligence for prediction markets. We analyse how markets will resolve (rules, wording, precedent), not what will happen. We hold no positions. Every published read is timestamped and graded by the market's actual resolution. all wording-risk markets