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US strike on Mexico by December 31?

market: Yes 14¢ / No 86¢ · liquidity $23,269 · ends 2027-01-01 · market page ↗
Turns on whether a strike claimed by Trump alone (without independent credible reporting) qualifies under the 'claimed by Donald Trump will qualify' clause versus the 'consensus of credible reporting' requirement.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering

Resolution rules (verbatim)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Rules state both that Trump/US government claims suffice AND that consensus credible reporting is the primary source—these conflict if Trump claims a strike but no credible reporting backs it.

Big money on this market

Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $38,458 · SELL No $14,786 · SELL Yes $12,493 · BUY Yes $6,902. Displayed as evidence of informed interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.

BUY No $19,987 @ 76¢ 2026-03-20 · 0xb8e32d57… · wallet history: $385,193 redeemed / 16 resolutions
BUY No $6,613 @ 74¢ 2026-03-17 · 0xc984e539… · wallet history: $11,626 redeemed / 12 resolutions
SELL Yes $3,510 @ 13¢ 2026-04-25 · 0xa268d448… · wallet history: $53,792 redeemed / 28 resolutions
SELL No $2,691 @ 77¢ 2026-03-24 · 0x49e94011… · wallet history: $314,027 redeemed / 35 resolutions
SELL Yes $2,452 @ 13¢ 2026-06-02 · 0x1f3018e3… · wallet history: $12,022 redeemed / 2 resolutions
SELL No $2,091 @ 87¢ 2026-08-01 · 0xc984e539… · wallet history: $11,626 redeemed / 12 resolutions
BUY No $2,000 @ 89¢ 2026-07-10 · 0x40a67cff… · wallet history: $54,936 redeemed / 16 resolutions
BUY Yes $1,398 @ 28¢ 2026-04-05 · 0xc21e1344… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions

Disputed precedents with similar wording

Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).

Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will the US not strike another country before 2027? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Will the US strike 4 countries in 2026? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2026-12-31

Machine-readable

This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/us-strike-on-mexico-by-december-31.json. Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.

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