{
 "market_id": "1107381",
 "slug": "us-strike-on-mexico-by-december-31",
 "question": "US strike on Mexico by December 31?",
 "event_slug": "us-strike-on-mexico-by",
 "event_title": "US strike on Mexico by...?",
 "resolution_text": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.\n\nA strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.\n\nAny strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThis market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.",
 "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z",
 "liquidity": 23268.5448,
 "volume24h": 6705.069521000001,
 "yes_price": 0.135,
 "no_price": 0.865,
 "active": true,
 "closed": false,
 "crux_class": "wording_risk",
 "crux": "Turns on whether a strike claimed by Trump alone (without independent credible reporting) qualifies under the 'claimed by Donald Trump will qualify' clause versus the 'consensus of credible reporting' requirement.",
 "crux_note": "Rules state both that Trump/US government claims suffice AND that consensus credible reporting is the primary source—these conflict if Trump claims a strike but no credible reporting backs it.",
 "classified_at": "2026-08-26T11:23:42.594Z",
 "our_read": null,
 "our_read_note": null,
 "read_price_at": null,
 "read_published_at": null,
 "resolved_outcome": null,
 "graded": null,
 "last_updated": "2026-08-27T10:23:06.689Z"
}