US strike on Colombia by December 31?
market:
Yes 18¢ / No 82¢
· liquidity $23,445 · ends 2026-01-31
·
market page ↗
Turns on whether a claim by Trump or the U.S. government that a strike occurred is sufficient alone for 'Yes' resolution, or whether credible reporting confirmation is ultimately required.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Rules state Trump/US government claims qualify, but final sentence is incomplete ('regardless of'—regardless of what?), creating ambiguity about whether claims override the credible reporting requirement.
Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
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DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
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resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/us-strike-on-colombia-by-december-31.json.
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