Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?
market:
Yes 1¢ / No 99¢
· liquidity $84,745 · ends 2026-10-01
·
market page ↗Turns on whether ongoing Israeli ground military operations in Lebanon constitute violations of a complete ground force withdrawal.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Rules state 'all ground forces have withdrawn' but then say 'regardless of...ground incursions by Israeli forces continue.' A ground incursion by definition involves ground troops, creating tension with 'all forces withdrawn.'
Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
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Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-by-september-30-2026.json.
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