Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?

market: Yes 7¢ / No 93¢ · liquidity $54,508 · ends 2027-01-01 · market page ↗

Turns on whether overwhelming consensus of credible reporting can resolve YES without an official Israeli government announcement.

no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering

Resolution rules (verbatim)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

Rules state government announcement is primary source, then permit 'overwhelming consensus' as alternative. Ambiguous whether reporting consensus alone suffices or must confirm government statement.

Disputed precedents with similar wording

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Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2027-01-01

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Machine-readable

This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-by-december-31-2026.json. Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.

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