Israel closes its airspace by September 30?
market:
Yes 5¢ / No 95¢
· liquidity $40,253 · ends 2026-10-01
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market page ↗
Turns on whether partial or regional airspace restrictions (vs. national-scale closures) qualify as 'major closure' of Israeli civilian airspace.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key terms 'broad,' 'majority,' and 'limited exceptions' lack precise quantitative thresholds; ambiguous boundary between limited cancellations and major closure.
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $5,795. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY No
$2,882 @ 96¢
2026-08-25 · 0x836ffd95… · wallet history: $22,252 redeemed / 20 resolutions
BUY No
$1,704 @ 93¢
2026-08-25 · 0x2974bd00… · wallet history: $103,984 redeemed / 18 resolutions
BUY No
$1,209 @ 93¢
2026-08-24 · 0x3238761f… · wallet history: $89,448 redeemed / 25 resolutions
Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/israel-closes-its-airspace-by-september-30.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.