{
 "market_id": "3701690",
 "slug": "israel-closes-its-airspace-by-september-30",
 "question": "Israel closes its airspace by September 30?",
 "event_slug": "israel-closes-its-airspace-by",
 "event_title": "Israel closes its airspace by...?",
 "resolution_text": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
 "end_date": "2026-10-01T03:59:00.000Z",
 "liquidity": 28959.3265,
 "volume24h": 36508.35989,
 "yes_price": 0.055,
 "no_price": 0.945,
 "active": true,
 "closed": false,
 "crux_class": "wording_risk",
 "crux": "Turns on whether partial or regional airspace restrictions (vs. national-scale closures) qualify as 'major closure' of Israeli civilian airspace.",
 "crux_note": "Key terms 'broad,' 'majority,' and 'limited exceptions' lack precise quantitative thresholds; ambiguous boundary between limited cancellations and major closure.",
 "classified_at": "2026-08-25T10:24:12.212Z",
 "our_read": null,
 "our_read_note": null,
 "read_price_at": null,
 "read_published_at": null,
 "resolved_outcome": null,
 "graded": null,
 "last_updated": "2026-09-01T12:23:08.641Z"
}