Iran leadership change by October 31?
market:
Yes 7¢ / No 93¢
· liquidity $51,877 · ends 2026-11-01
·
market page ↗Turns on whether partial incapacity (loss of military control, sidelining) counts as 'prevented from acting as de facto leader' or requires complete removal.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
'De facto leader' and 'prevented from acting' are undefined; unclear whether house arrest, hospitalization, or loss of key authority suffices.
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $5,742. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY No
$2,500 @ 87¢
2026-08-08 · 0x8c57f67a… · wallet history: $154,228 redeemed / 76 resolutions BUY No
$930 @ 93¢
2026-08-17 · 0x9d736920… · wallet history: $1,020 redeemed / 3 resolutions BUY No
$902 @ 92¢
2026-08-16 · 0xb1a190be… · wallet history: $16,635 redeemed / 29 resolutions BUY No
$815 @ 91¢
2026-08-16 · 0x8afa03dd… · wallet history: $46,706 redeemed / 20 resolutions BUY No
$595 @ 93¢
2026-08-22 · 0xbb5958e9… · wallet history: $30,852 redeemed / 128 resolutions Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Will the US strike 4 countries in 2026?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/iran-leadership-change-by-october-31.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.