Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?

market: Yes 26¢ / No 74¢ · liquidity $38,188 · ends 2027-07-01 · market page ↗

Turns on whether an announced resignation (with effective date after June 30, 2027) counts as 'ceases to be de facto leader' by the deadline.

no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering

Resolution rules (verbatim)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

The rule that 'An official announcement... will qualify for a Yes resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect' potentially conflicts with the requirement that he 'ceases to be the de facto leader... at any point between market creation and the listed date.' Does announcement alone suffice, or must actual cessation occur by June 30?

Disputed precedents with similar wording

Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).

Kodiak FDV above $50M one day after launch? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2027-01-01

Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2027-01-01

Will the US not strike another country before 2027? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2026-12-31

Iran leadership change by March 13? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2026-12-31

Machine-readable

This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/iran-leadership-change-by-june-30-2027-674-937-179-655.json. Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.

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