unrekt resolver / dossier

Will YMTC be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

market: Yes 14¢ / No 86¢ · liquidity $23,623 · ends 2027-06-30 · market page ↗
Turns on whether disappearance from the official list via corporate restructuring (renaming, merger, affiliate transfer) qualifies as removal under the rules' exception clause.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering

Resolution rules (verbatim)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is fully removed from the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying removal occurs when the specified company named in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) no longer appears on an updated official Section 1260H list. A qualifying removal must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of delisting. Removal of a subsidiary or affiliate entry while the specified company remains listed will not qualify. Removal of a company will qualify even if formerly affiliated subsidiaries remain listed as separate entries. An entity that ceases to appear solely due to renaming, merger with another listed entity, or transfer of the designation to a successor, parent, or affiliate entity will not be considered removed. A removal will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn. For the purposes of this market, a company’s status will be entirely determined by its presence on the aforementioned list. If the enforcement of its designation is suspended without being removed from the aforementioned list, that will not qualify as a removal. If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov) (a.k.a. Department of War, https://www.war.gov).

Rules explicitly exclude removal-via-renaming/merger/affiliate-transfer, creating ambiguity about which delisting scenarios count. Requires judgment calls about nature of corporate events. (Note: rules text appears incomplete at end.)

Big money on this market

Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $849 · SELL No $790. Displayed as evidence of informed interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.

BUY No $849 @ 75¢ 2026-08-17 · 0x1f9e15f3… · wallet history: $55 redeemed / 4 resolutions
SELL No $790 @ 87¢ 2026-08-17 · 0x1f9e15f3… · wallet history: $55 redeemed / 4 resolutions

Disputed precedents with similar wording

Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).

Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2027-12-31
Will Wells Fargo or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2027-12-31
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Over $2M committed to the Infinex public sale? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Over $15M committed to the Trove public sale? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2027-01-01

Machine-readable

This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-ymtc-be-removed-from-chinese-military-companies-list-by-june-30-2027-20260706223230553.json. Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.

unrekt resolver — independent resolution intelligence for prediction markets. We analyse how markets will resolve (rules, wording, precedent), not what will happen. We hold no positions. Every published read is timestamped and graded by the market's actual resolution. all wording-risk markets