Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by September 25, 2026?
market:
Yes 90¢ / No 10¢
· liquidity $6,745 · ends 2026-10-07
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market page ↗Turns on whether '280M' in the question correctly converts to 280,000 in the EIA's thousand-barrel unit basis.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value after market creation for any week ending on or before September 25, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before September 25, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached.
If data has not been released for the final week ending on September 25, 2026, by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W.
Note: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.
Question uses '280M' (280 million barrels) but EIA publishes in thousands of barrels; the conversion math is implicit and not stated in rules, creating implementation risk.
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-us-crude-oil-reserves-fall-to-280m-by-september-25-2026.json.
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